What
to make of Donald Trump. Against all odds he is now the prohibitive
favorite to capture the Republican nomination for President of the
United States. The party of Lincoln and Reagan is about to nominate
a crude, authoritarian, narcissistic blowhard whose claim on the
presidency is that he is a “successful businessman”.
Conventional political strategy is to attack him for not being a true
Republican; for lacking the temperament, judgment, and core
principles to be President; and for not having detailed policy
proposals to address the issues facing America. This logical
approach to criticizing Trump is spectacularly unsuccessful as his
political strength is growing rather than diminishing.
Instead
of a logical approach to undermining Trump, what is needed is a
psycho-logical approach. Politics has a logic of its own that is
based on meeting the psychological needs of people. To paraphrase
Jonah Goldberg, when Trump says 2 + 2 = 5 he is considered an idiot
by conventional standards. In politics, however, if a million people
believe 2 + 2 = 5 they are not a million idiots but a “constituency”
and as the constituency expands it becomes a “movement”, and the
person proposing 2 + 2 = 5 is the opposite of an idiot. He is a
savior.
Trump's
core constituency are white blue collar workers most affected by the
decades long trends of globalization and technological advances.
Manufacturing shifts to countries with lower labor costs puts
downward pressure on wages and technological advances replaces blue
collar workers with machines. Blue collar workers no longer believe
in the American dream and are considerably anxious about their
economic future – particularly blue collar workers with no other
job skills and too old for retraining.
Enter
Donald Trump who promises to bring back jobs from China, Japan, and
Mexico; eliminate illegal immigrants that are usurping jobs from
Americans; and create a booming economy where wages grow and the
American Dream is restored. This is catnip to his constituency and
is taken as gospel because of Trump's track record of amassing a
multi-billion fortune as a businessman.
Attacks
on the feasibility of Trumps immigration or economic plans or his off
the wall comments that range from childish to dangerous and bigoted
do not persuade his core constituency. Not because they are stupid
or ill informed, but because they have great faith in the Trump
persona honed over many years as a TV reality host – the plain
spoken, take no prisoners, feisty, and successful businessman.
Constituents
re-construe criticisms of Trump through the lens of his persona. His
outrageous comments and personal attacks evidences his unvarnished
truthfulness. Details on his economic plans are unnecessary as his
phenomenal success as a businessman demonstrates his economic acumen.
Tuesday
night's primary result showed Trump expanding his constituency beyond
blue collar workers. Exit polls indicated that Trump was
overwhelmingly favored by voters who expressed anger or frustration
with current politicians. The anti-establishment sentiment
incorporates a wide swath of Republican voters. He won most states
in the Super Tuesday primaries from the north to the south, from
Massachusetts to Alabama. He solidified an ideologically diverse
coalition of working and middle class families behind his clarion
call that politicians have failed and only he can turn America
around.
His
followers see Trump as a fighter who speaks their language and has
their back. He is the one that can make Washington work again.
Never mind that Trump hints at using strong-arm tactics when he is
opposed. His voters just want the proverbial trains to run on time
again.
This
will continue until the Trump persona is pierced, the curtain is
pulled back, and he is revealed as just another Wizard of Oz. This
requires questioning his business success and net worth, his concern
for the vulnerable, and the consequences of having a strongman
President. There is plenty of video of ordinary people affected by
Trump's business scams and failings; of his roughshoding veterans and
homeowners to further his business interests; of his threats to use
law suits or the institutions of government to shut down freedom of
speech; of his refusal to disclose prior tax returns because they
reveal business reversals, lack of charitable contributions, and a
considerably smaller net worth than his boastful claims.
It
may be too late for saturation ads with these videos to turn the
tide. The die may be cast, but the consequences of a Trump
candidacy are too painful to contemplate. Truly a miracle is needed.
I am going to pray for one.
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